85 Points, Same Winners: Why Football’s Top Leagues Are Losing Their Spark
- Top European clubs outspend rivals by 200-300 million euros, leading to just 5-12% of matches ending in underdog wins
- Barcelona, Manchester City, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, and PSG have won almost every title over the last three seasons, making the races predictable
- Goal averages among the European giants per match are: 2.66 in La Liga, 2.89 in EPL, 3.16 in Bundesliga, and 2.87 in Ligue 1, underlining their unmatched but unhealthy dominance
Every weekend, football fans from all over the world watch games in Europe's top leagues. However, something seems strange during the last three seasons (even further back).
Before the ball rolls, the excitement wanes, the surprises wear off, and the results appear predetermined.
This change is evident in Ligue 1, La Liga, the English Premier League, and the Bundesliga. The boredom is exacerbated by a small number of clubs' dominance, large point differences, and fewer goals scored per game.
To understand why these competitions become stale, let's examine the numbers from the 2022–2023; 2023–24; and 2024–25 seasons.
Source: Getty Images
La Liga
Start with Spain's La Liga. Fast play and skill from stars at several clubs used to excite this league. Real Madrid and Barcelona are now the two dominant teams.
Barcelona won the 2022–2023 championship with 88 points, ten points ahead of Real Madrid, who came in second with 78 points.
The following year, Real Madrid reversed the trend and won by 95 points, 10 points more than Barcelona, who finished with 85 points. Then, in 2024–25, Barcelona won the championship once more with 88 points, four points more than Real Madrid's 84.
No other club came close during these three years. On average, Atletico Madrid, the third-best team, was behind by 15 points or more each time.
La Liga has only ever been won by nine clubs, but in recent years, the big two have been sharing the titles. The race is predictable because of this pattern.
Source: Getty Images
The statistics support the fans' belief that either Madrid or Barcelona will win. Over the course of the three seasons, the average difference in points between first and second place was eight.
Goals also contribute to the narrative. La Liga's goal average declines, but entertaining football requires scoring.
Teams scored 982 goals in 380 games in 2022–2023, an average of 2.58 goals per game. With 1,042 goals, the average increased marginally to 2.74 in 2023–2024 but dropped to 2.67 in 2024–2025.
In contrast, averages in previous decades were frequently 3.0 or higher. Viewers became disinterested when there were fewer goals because there were more draws and low-scoring victories.
Barcelona scored 70 goals in their 2022-23 title win, while Real Madrid netted 75 the following year.
Even though a prolific scorer like Robert Lewandowski scored 23 goals in 2024–25, attacks generally seem cautious. Managers put points ahead of style, and defences rule.
One factor is financial power. Compared to teams like Villarreal or Sevilla, Barcelona and Real Madrid spent significantly more on transfers during these seasons, more than 200 million euros each.
The league suffers as a result of this disparity, which keeps smaller teams from competing.
The situation in England
Go to the English Premier League, which is frequently referred to as the most competitive, even trends there show that the situation is similar with that of La Liga.
Manchester City won in 2022-23 with 89 points, five ahead of Arsenal's 84. They repeated in 2023-24, edging Arsenal again, 91 to 89, a mere two-point gap.
But in 2024-25, Liverpool broke through with 84 points, 10 ahead of Arsenal's 74. City finished third with 71.
Over three seasons, total points for City reached 251, Arsenal 247, and Liverpool 233. That shows tight races at the top, but among only three clubs. No other team cracked 80 points in any season.
Chelsea, for example, averaged 65 points, while promoted sides like Luton or Burnley struggled below 30. The gap between champions and runners-up averaged six points, smaller than in other leagues, but the same clubs dominate.
Goal tallies offer mixed signals. In 2022–2023 there were 1,084 goals in the Premier League, or 2.85 goals per game. With 1,148 goals in 2023–24, that increased to 3.02, the highest level in years. But with 1,060 goals, 2024–25 fell to 2.79.
Source: Getty Images
In 2023–24, Erling Haaland led with 27, but the teams were cautious. Direct attacks are replaced by more passes, an average of more than 500 per game.
According to statistics, dribbles dropped 15% during these seasons. This is driven by big money. While teams like Bournemouth managed to spend 50 million euros on players, Man City spent 300 million. Unrest is uncommon, and inequality increases.
In 2024–25, underdogs won just 12 percent of games, compared to 20 percent ten years ago. Drama is what fans watch for, but their interest wanes when the outcomes seem predetermined.
Same in Bundesliga
Germany's Bundesliga is known for its high scores, but one club's hold on the league causes boredom to creep in.
In 2022–2023 Bayern Munich finished with 71 points, tied with Dortmund but ahead on goal differential of +54 to +39, a zero-point difference.
In 2023–24, Bayer Leverkusen ended the run, going undefeated with 90 points, 17 more than Stuttgart's 73. In 2024–25, Bayern recovered with 82 points, 13 more than Leverkusen's 69. Bayern won 33 of the previous 35 titles, with this one hiccup.
Ten points is the average difference. Leipzig, Stuttgart, and Dortmund alternate as contenders, but they hardly ever pose a threat. Third place lagged the winner by an average of 20 points over three seasons.
Goals continue to be a positive aspect. With 971 goals overall, the Bundesliga averaged 3.17 goals per game in 2022–2023; 3.22 goals per game with 985 in 2023–2024; and 3.10 goals per game in 2024–2025.
In 2023–24, Harry Kane scored 36 goals for Bayern, and teams were free to attack.
However, predictability still hurts, even when there are three or more goals per game. Bayern has a budget of over 800 million euros, which is twice as much as most of its competitors.
Some sell talent, while others pay $100 million to sign stars like Kane. In 2024–25, just 5% of games defied expectations.
Title races end early, but stadiums are packed with fans, with an average attendance of 42,000. With ten games remaining in 2024–25, Bayern was ahead by 10 points. Individual games are kept interesting by high scores, but the season arc is dull.
Ligue 1
France's Ligue 1 has the most severe problems. With 85 points in 2022–2023, one more than Lens's 84—76 points in 2023–2024 (shortened season?), nine more than Monaco's 67, and a quadruple in 2024–2025, a gap estimated at 12 points over runners-up, Paris Saint-Germain won all three seasons.
PSG has won 12 of the previous 13 championships. Although the average difference is seven points, the dominance is obvious. Lille, Monaco, and Marseille compete for second place but frequently fall behind by double digits. On average, third place was 15 points behind.
Mid-range goals are the focus. Averages: 2.96 in 2023–24, 2.85 in 2024–25, and 2.81 in 2022–23 with 1,069 goals over 380 games.
Prior to his transfer, Kylian Mbappe scored 29 goals in 2023–24. Matches, however, are not cutting edge. PSG scored 2.5 goals and gave up fewer than one goal per game, winning 80% of them.
Their budget is three times larger than Lyon's or Nice's, at over 600 million euros. In order to survive, smaller clubs sell players, which makes their teams weaker. Only 10% of fixtures experience upsets. As fans grow weary of the script, attendance averages 25,000, which is lower than peers.
Why have these leagues become monotonous?
First, the disparities in income have grown.
Top clubs receive 200–300 million euros from sponsors and television, while bottom clubs receive 50 million. Better coaches, players, and facilities are purchased as a result.
70 percent of transfer spending in all four leagues goes to the top five clubs. Second, strategies change to gain control. To make safe plays, more possession, fewer risks, managers use data.
In three years, Premier League passes increased by 20% while Bundesliga shots decreased by 10%. Third, there won't be any new stories if there aren't many winners. In the past ten years, there have only been ten distinct champions in these leagues.
According to studies, matches have become 15% more predictable since 2010 as a result of inequality, and predictability kills suspense.
Statistics show the problem. Winners in these leagues averaged 85 points, while runners-up averaged 78, a seven-point difference.
La Liga 2.66, Premier League 2.89, Bundesliga 3.16, and Ligue 1 2.87 goals per game. However, when races end early, high scores are insufficient. Overall, upsets decreased by 18 percent. Instead of coronations, fans prefer competition.
Leagues need balance to address this. Increase promotion sides, cap expenditures, or more effectively share revenue. Boredom lingers until then.
Uncertainty is what football thrives on, but these seasons don't provide much. And before viewers get turned off, it's time for a change.
Slot leads Liverpool to title win in first season
Earlier, Legit.ng reported that Arne Slot incredibly led the Reds to the title in his first season after replacing former manager Jürgen Klopp, who spent nine successful seasons at Merseyside.
Liverpool won the league title during Arne Slot’s first season. The Reds have made signings to improve their squad in a bid to defend their title.
Proofreading by Kola Muhammed, copy editor at Legit.ng.
Source: Legit.ng
