Who Will Win the 2027 Presidential Election in Nigeria? We Asked ChatGPT
- As Nigeria's 2027 presidential election approaches, early political activity is heating up, especially with the emergence of the ADC coalition to challenge incumbent President Tinubu and the APC
- A Four Horsemen-style analysis applied by ChatGPT's election predictor provides insights into who may emerge as the winner
- However, the AI analysis offers context and caveats, suggesting the current prediction could still change
It is still two years until Nigeria's 2027 presidential election, but electoral activities have already kicked off in full swing, in violation of the country's campaign regulations.
The opposition, sensing the growing power of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), has entered into a coalition agreement, using the All Democratic Congress (ADC), a small party, as its new adopted platform.
Source: Getty Images
The prominent members of the ADC coalition include former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Vice Presidential Candidate Peter Obi, former Kaduna governor Nasir El-Rufai, former transport minister Rotimi Amaechi, former Senate president David Mark and former interior minister Rauf Aregbesola.
They are from the top three key parties in the country: the APC, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP).
As they mobilise across the country in their bid to unseat President Bola Tinubu, the APC is also taking aggressive steps to retain power beyond 2027, welcoming key PDP governors into its fold ahead of the general polls.
The political climate has reached a point where the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has had to issue a warning that campaigning at this time is illegal, echoing the standpoint of popular human rights lawyer Femi Falana.
The APC has endorsed President Tinubu to fly its flag again in 2027, while Atiku and Obi are in a silent battle to pick the ADC ticket. Obi has even offered to serve only one term as part of his negotiation to get the ticket while also respecting the country's informal north-south presidency rotation.
Source: Getty Images
Who will win Nigeria's 2027 presidential election?
Amid the political debate, Legit.ng asked ChatGPT's Election Predictor, "Acting as an experienced political editor in Nigeria, predict who will win the 2027 presidential election?"
The generative AI tool responded by applying a Four Horsemen‑style framework to Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election.
The Four Horsemen-style framework is a strategic or analytical model popularised by Scott Galloway, a professor at NYU Stern School of Business, in his bestselling book The Four: The Hidden DNA of Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google.
In this Four Horsemen framework analysis, each "Horse" symbolises a powerful factor that historically predicts whether the incumbent party will lose a presidential election. If two or more horses are present, the incumbent party is predicted to lose. Here's what each horse represents: White Horse means Significant Third-Party Candidate. That is, there is public dissatisfaction with the two main parties (APC and PDP). Red Horse represents Voter Turnout Uptick. This means there is a motivated electorate seeking change and willing to go out en masse to vote. Black Horse represents recession, reflecting that the state of the economy is hurting the ruling party (APC). Lastly, Pale Horse represents Vacancy (No Incumbent). It shows a weakened incumbent party without the advantage of a sitting president.
Source: UGC
2027 elections: Four Horsemen adapted for Nigeria
1. White Horse: Significant Third‑Party Candidate
Using the Four Horsemen-style framework, ChatGPT stated that the White Horse is present. This, according to the generative AI tool, is because Atiku, Obi and others have joined the ADC coalition to challenge President Tinubu, and that Obi’s Labour Party and APC-PDP realignment have energised younger voters.
2. Red Horse: Turnout Uptick
Turnout in the 2023 presidential election dropped to around 27%, the lowest in Nigeria’s democratic history, continuing a long decline (57% in 2007, down to ~27% in 2023)
ChatGPT predicts that without major reforms or a dramatic mobilisation, a significant increase in turnout by 2027 seems unlikely. This means that Red Horse is absent.
3. Black Horse: Recession or Economic Crisis
Although inflation remains high and cost‑of‑living pressure persists, the World Bank reports economic growth of around 4.6% in late 2024 and projects 3.6% in 2025 under Tinubu’s reforms (fuel subsidy removal, exchange‑rate adjustments, revenue gains).
This means there is no clear, outright recession. And according to the framework, this means that Black Horse is absent (for now).
4. Pale Horse: Vacancy/Incumbent Exit
From all indications, President Tinubu will seek re‑election, and he remains healthy; no credible rumour of withdrawal or vacancy has surfaced. This means that Pale Horse is absent.
Source: UGC
Overall Score: 1 (only White Horse)
Per the Four Horsemen model (original research since 1932), if fewer than two horses appear, the incumbent party is predicted to win 100% of the time, ChatGPT's election predictor stated, adding that a score of 1 strongly suggests continuation of the APC's control of the presidency.
Source: Getty Images
2027 election prediction: Context & caveats
The generative AI also provided some context and caveats regarding the prediction. The AI election predictor stated that while turnout in 2023 was dire, if the ADC coalition (or new parties) manage a true grassroots turnout surge, especially among young and first-time voters, it could flip the signalling on the Red Horse.
It added that a sudden downturn, e.g., global oil shocks, debt crises, and serious food insecurity, could activate the Black Horse later in the election cycle.
Also, unexpected developments (e.g. judicial rulings, major scandals) could affect Pale Horse's status.
And lastly, the predictor stated that it doesn’t identify which candidate will win, only whether the incumbent party (APC under Tinubu) is likely to retain the presidency.
ChatGPT's election predictor verdict for 2027 elections
Given current observable trends and likely conditions, White Horse is present (significant opposition coalition) while Red, Black, and Pale Horses are absent.
The Four Horsemen framework would forecast that the APC (Tinubu’s incumbency) is likely to retain the presidency in 2027, assuming no major economic collapse or turnout revolution occurs.
Only two things can stop Tinubu in 2027 - Ali Modu Sheriff
Meanwhile, Ali Modu Sheriff, the former governor of Borno state, has said that President Tinubu winning the 2027 election is non-negotiable.
He said the president will not be re-elected in 2027, only if there is no election in 2027 or if he decides to step down from the race.
Sheriff said as long as President Tinubu contests the election, he would be declared the winner.
Source: Legit.ng
